Daily Market Assessment

Hope is everywhere. Spring has sprung!

Well, I could not have been more wrong! I'm back after two weeks vacation in Italy (fantastic, by the way!) and what do I find? a market that's squarely in bull mode. The Dow jumped 265 points in two weeks, the NASDAQ and S&P are up almost as much. Oil has retreated and the Fed has not spooked anyone as much as I thought they would.

So where does that leave us? My overall assessment is still one of caution, especially since we are headed into earnings season this week, a period that is notorious for surprises in both directions. I think we will know in the next few days whether we are in real trouble, however. Many of the techs have already issued warnings to take the steam out of their announcements; if anything, we'll see surprises to the upside. But the Blue Chips are the ones to watch. Citigroup (C) on Monday, IBM on Tuesday, JP Morgan on Wednesday, and Merck (MRK) on Thursday. Right now, I think they will do well, and the market is going to respond in kind.

Summary: Long-term Bullish, short-term bullish.