Friday, August 17 Market Assessment
Investing cannot be based on Hope
Yesterday's market was another wild one! The DOW made a 700-point round-trip during the day, scaring the daylights out of many. It's possible that the 340-point move back to the 12800 support level that I identified two weeks ago was, in fact, the hoped-for "relief" rally that marks the beginning of an upturn. But I think it's too early to make that call.
First, today is options expiration day. That alone should increase volatility (which spiked to new 7-year highs yesterday). Second, the credit crisis is not over, although hedge funds have probably bought about two weeks before they have to start redeeming billions of dollars of cash again. Finally, there are no new leadership sectors. Yesterday's rush at the end was led by the financials, and they are in no position to lead a fresh market rally. Everyone would like to see tech stocks lead the way, but even the NASDAQ is pushing a string against heavy selling pressure. HPQ had a nice earnings report after the close, but I suspect that it was a surprise only to the TV commentators who constantly cheerlead for the bulls.
The next several sessions are going to bounce up and down (I've been saying this for the last week, unfortunately) as the trader crowd tests support at 12800. The next level down is to 12400, which is very weak. A plunge below that level takes us back to 11900, at best. Let's not go there. But let's be prepared for some more wild swings. Stay away from intraday trading; set buy points and stop-losses based on end-of-day charts. I am optimistic about September, once we get away from Hedge Fund redemptions in late August. The country will accept a 1200 point retracement as natural; a 15% drop from 14000 to 11900 in one month is going to convince a lot of people, including me, that next year will see a recession. Let's "hope" that doesn't happen.
Summary: Short term neutral, long term bullish.
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