Monday, October 02, 2006

Counterattack pushes us back

A fresh assault on the DOW Thursday and Friday fell short of the all time high of 11,750. This was not good news, since the run-up during the week was conducted on relatively unimpressive volume. In addition, the Jewish holidays undoubtedly thinned the ranks of active money managers in New York. Today the sellers came back in a rush, tearing up the market in mid-day and routing several of my picks from last week. GOL and GILD tripped 7% stop-losses, so they're out of the fight. AAPL (on a analyst downgrade), BWNG, ASFI, DRIV, and TWGP all moved down sharply today, putting the portfolio in the red. ICE and AEOS are the only ones holding their own. Volume is still below average, however, and the overall market indices give strong indications of consolidation in front of a sharp move upward. But the NASDAQ retreat today has set off warning signals everywhere. By Wednesday I may have only four or five of the original stocks still in hand. If we see another distribution day (or even two) this week, the rally will be considered over, and I will tread water waiting for a new market direction to be set.

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