May 11 Daily Market Assessment

First Distribution Day

As forecasted, on Thursday we finally got our distribution day (i.e., a day of above average volume, plus more decliners over gainers). I actually thought it would occur on Wednesday, but I guess the fund managers needed an excuse to start selling, and the weak results from retail (especially Wal-Mart) was just enough to push the boat over the falls.

But this may not be enough. Although today will probably see a bounce-back, more consolidation seems necessary before moving further up. I look for sideways movement for another few days, then another strong move toward 14,000 on the DOW.